German Intelligence Chief Warns Russia's Shadow War Is Raising Risk of Violent Conflict

Germany's foreign intelligence chief warned on Monday that escalating Russian covert activity is increasing the risk that Germany could become involved in a violent confrontation with Moscow.

A blunt assessment to parliament
Martin Jaeger, president of Germany's BND foreign intelligence service, told a parliamentary hearing that Russian operations against Germany and other European countries have entered a more dangerous phase. "No other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive, and concrete threat to Germany," Jaeger said, adding plainly, "Russia is waging a shadow war against us." He described Russian intelligence services as "highly professional and reckless," and said the threat of Russian attacks on German targets remains "real and present." German authorities have attributed cyber operations, drone activity, and suspected sabotage to Russia, including the attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport in August, which Jaeger cited as an example of the type of threat German authorities are confronting. Moscow has denied Western accusations that it is conducting a coordinated hybrid campaign against European countries.

A warning that is serious but qualified
Jaeger's warning came with an important qualification. He said German intelligence does not currently see evidence of an imminent large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory, while warning that lower-intensity military activity, particularly around the Baltic states, remains a concern. He warned specifically of further sabotage and nuclear intimidation intended to discourage Berlin and other European capitals from taking further measures against Russia or continuing arms deliveries to Ukraine. That distinction matters: European governments increasingly describe Russian activity as a campaign operating below the threshold of conventional war, but that assessment does not establish that Moscow has decided to begin a direct conflict with NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that Russia had no intention of attacking other countries but would respond if it were subjected to aggression. This position illustrates the central dispute: NATO governments say Russia is testing Western states through cyber operations, drones, sabotage, and intimidation, while Moscow portrays Western military support for Ukraine and NATO activity near Russia as threats to its own security.

Germany's exposed position
Germany occupies a particularly important position in that confrontation because it is one of Ukraine's largest military supporters and a major NATO logistics centre. Chancellor Friedrich Merz reaffirmed German support for Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv on Sunday and announced a new assistance package worth more than 1.3 billion euros. Jaeger warned that Germany should expect continued pressure from Moscow and severe Russian attacks on Ukraine during the coming winter. Germany is also considering legislation to expand its intelligence services' ability to conduct active operations against security threats.

A problem built for the space between peace and war
That legislative debate reflects a wider European problem. Governments built many of their security institutions around a distinction between peace and war, but cyber operations, covert sabotage, and unmanned systems increasingly operate in the space between those categories. NATO countries must improve resilience and deterrence without treating every hostile incident as the start of conventional war. The most reliable indicators of a larger escalation would remain observable military actions, including major force movements, changes in nuclear readiness, or sustained attacks on NATO territory. For now, Jaeger's warning points to a more dangerous security environment below the threshold of open war, while his assessment that a large-scale Russian attack is not imminent remains an important part of the picture.