Carney Urges Albertans to Choose Unity One Week Before Referendum

Prime Minister Mark Carney used his Thanksgiving message on Monday to make his most direct appeal yet to Albertans ahead of the October 19 referendum, urging them to choose unity and prosperity one week before they vote.

In a social media video, Carney said, "You can't build big things on fault lines." He said Canada faces "real threats to our economy, to our security, to our way of life," and that "we have to be strong and we are stronger together." He said Albertans helped build the country, and it is "worth fighting for." Al Jazeera reported that the video was filmed at his former high school in Edmonton, and that he pointed to new homes, high-speed rail and a pipeline to the West Coast being built in Alberta.

A change in tone
CP24, citing the Canadian Press, called the comments some of Carney's most direct on the referendum so far. Until now, he has mainly pointed to policy decisions, including scrapping the consumer carbon tax, backing a West Coast pipeline and addressing environmental regulations. NordoVista did not find a statement in which he told Albertans how to vote on Question 10, which asks whether Alberta should "remain a province of Canada" or start the legal process toward a binding referendum on separation. Al Jazeera describes the initial vote as non-binding, since the second option would only start a process, but NordoVista could not confirm the legal effect from an official source.

Reactions in Alberta
Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney said low turnout could favour separatists, and urged Albertans to build on new pipelines, liquefied natural gas and investment, and on a federal government that "seems to be listening." Thomas Lukaszuk, a former deputy premier and leader of the pro-unity Forever Canadian campaign, said Ottawa has already heard Alberta's concerns and that a referendum isn't needed to make the point. Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the Let Alberta Decide campaign, said a majority vote for Option 2 would show Ottawa that Albertans have a credible alternative to remaining in Confederation. Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, said Carney has addressed the economic and climate policies that Premier Danielle Smith has criticized. However, others in his party have questioned his commitment to climate. No new reaction from Smith appears in the reporting NordoVista reviewed.

Where the vote stands
Polls suggest most Albertans would choose to stay. An Ipsos poll for Global News in September found 70 percent planned to choose Option 1, with 20 percent choosing Option 2, and Ipsos senior vice president Gregory Jack said the side that wants to stay "is not as motivated." The concern, CP24 reported, is with "frustrated federalists" or "soft separatists" who may not want independence but want to send Ottawa a message. Advance voting begins Tuesday, October 13.

What comes next
Carney is expected to be in Alberta this week, according to CTV News, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will speak on Canadian unity at a Canada Strong and Free Network conference on October 16. The question for the federal government is not only whether Albertans vote to stay, but by what margin and with what turnout, and what Ottawa does afterward if a significant share chooses the second option.